The Pacific region is among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, despite Pacific Island Countries contributing less than 0.03% of the world's total greenhouse gas emissions. If current trends continue, global temperatures are projected to exceed 1.5°C by 2040 and could reach 2°C between 2041 and 2060 unless there are rapid, deep, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
This alarming trajectory has already led to increasingly severe climate-related events in the Pacific, highlighting the region's extreme vulnerability. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has urgently warned the global community about these escalating impacts (IPCC, 2022):
Rising temperatures
A 2°C rise in global temperatures would greatly increase areas prone to runoff and flood hazards compared to a 1.5°C rise. However, even a 1.5°C rise could have severe consequences. Projections show that 70–90% of tropical coral reefs could disappear at this level of warming. In December 2014, widespread coral bleaching was reported in the Marshall Islands, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, the Northwest Hawaiian Islands, and Kiribati, posing a significant threat to coral survival in these regions.
Rising sea levels
Sea levels are increasing at approximately 3.3 millimetres per year. While this may appear modest, it poses a dire threat to these vulnerable regions, where entire communities face the risk of being submerged. Once in 100-year extreme sea level events will occur annually or more frequently at up to a quarter of the Pacific region by 2050.
Extreme weather events
The frequency and severity of cyclones and storms have also increased and latest combined modelling predicts these will significantly increase into the future. Cyclone Pam in 2015 and Cyclone Harold in 2020 caused widespread destruction in Vanuatu, Fiji and the Solomon Islands respectively. For the atoll countries, the impact of sea level rise on the annual king tides (around December to January) have been particularly disruptive. These events not only lead to significant economic losses but also pose serious threats to the lives and livelihoods of the local populations.
Food security
9 out of 16 Pacific Island entities (Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Guam, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Tuvalu) could experience more than a 50% decline in maximum catch potential by 2100 relative to 1980–2000. This projection holds true under both low and high emission scenarios, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation strategies regardless of future emission pathways.
Food production in small islands is being impacted through slow-onset stressors such as rising average temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns (including associated extreme events) and sea level rise associated with climate change. For example, changes in the El Niño-Southern oscillation have been associated with drought which increased sweet potato losses in the Highlands in Papua New Guinea and tropical Cyclone Pam in 2015 caused damages to the agricultural sector valued at nearly two thirds of Vanuatu’s GdP.
Local economies
Ocean warming and other climatic phenomena (e.g., ENSO events and Indian Ocean Dipole) have been linked to observed oceanic shifts in tuna distribution with significant impacts on revenue for vulnerable small island states that depend on fisheries licences (e.g., 98% of national income in Tokelau, 66% of national income in Kiribati).
In addition to the usual obstacles, climate change poses a significant risk to traditional knowledge. Indigenous Peoples and local communities must enhance their expertise about their lands and resources to address these challenges. This deep understanding enables them to adapt to harsh weather and gradual climate shifts. Their wisdom is crucial for achieving Sustainable Development Goal 13, which focuses on climate action. By observing climate variations, adapting to their effects, and contributing to global efforts to cut emissions, they play a key role in tackling climate change.